“New reality” as world reaches “first climate tipping point”
Researchers from IÉSEG have contributed to a major new report that argues that the world is facing a “new reality” as we have reached the first of many Earth system tipping points that will cause catastrophic harm unless humanity takes urgent action.
10/23/2025
4 min
Share
A tipping point occurs when a small change sparks an often rapid and irreversible transformation, and the effects can be positive or negative.
The second Global Tipping Points Report finds that warm-water coral reefs – on which nearly a billion people and a quarter of all marine life depend – are passing their tipping point. Widespread dieback is taking place and – unless global warming is reversed – extensive reefs as we know them will be lost, although small refuges may survive and must be protected.
The report also argues that we are on the brink of more tipping points, with devastating risks for people and nature: the irreversible melting of polar ice sheets, the collapse of key ocean currents and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest – where the next COP (30) will be held in November.
With global warming set to breach 1.5°C, the report – coordinated by the University of Exeter and involving 160 scientists at 87 institutions in 23 countries – argues that countries must minimize temperature overshoot to avoid crossing more tipping points. Every fraction of a degree and every year spent above 1.5°C matters. Action to trigger “positive tipping points” of self-propelling change – such as the rollout of renewable energy – now offers the only credible route to a safe, just and sustainable future, the report notes.
Action required from leaders at COP30
Professor Tim Lenton, from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, said: “We are rapidly approaching multiple Earth system tipping points that could transform our world, with devastating consequences for people and nature. This demands immediate, unprecedented action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide.”
“In the two years since the first Global Tipping Points Report, there has been a radical global acceleration in some areas, including the uptake of solar power and electric vehicles. But we need to do more – and move faster – to seize positive tipping point opportunities. By doing so, we can drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions and tip the world away from catastrophic tipping points and towards a thriving, sustainable future.”
Professor Hugues CHENET and Silvia MONTAGNANI, both from IÉSEG & University of Lille CNRS UMR 9221 – LEM, have together contributed with other experts to three chapters in the new report which focus on: the governance required to prevent Earth system tipping points; the topic of impact governance; and tipping point risk assessment.
Global governance agenda
The first Global Tipping Points Report published in 2023 highlighted that prevention should be the core goal and logic of a new and urgently needed global governance agenda.
Source : Global Tipping Points Report (Chapter 1.2 Governance to prevent Earth system tipping points).
In the latest report, the experts argue that the risk of activating tipping processes exists at current levels of warming and increases with every 0.1°C and every year of overshooting the globally agreed goal of 1.5°C. In addition, current climate mitigation measures are not sufficient to prevent tipping events; they need to be accelerated and coupled with measures addressing non-climate drivers, such as deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.
In particular, Hugues CHENET and Silvia MONTAGNANI insist on the crucial role of finance, which is the focus of their research “It is very clear that financial institutions need to urgently cease supporting the destabilization of the Earth through the huge financial flows that feed harmful activities such as fossil fuel extraction or deforestation. A reallocation of financial capital from (particularly in wealthy economies) banks and investors, must now contribute to re-stabilizing and restoring ecosystems.”
Impact governance
The researchers argue that societies need governance efforts that anticipate and prepare for the specific impacts of Earth system tipping points before tipping points are crossed – these impacts differ from the observed and expected impacts of climate change.
Source : Global Tipping Points Report (Chapter 1.3 Impact governance for Earth system tipping points)
Governments should therefore assess and reduce vulnerability to the impacts of Earth system tipping processes, build resilience, and include tipping impacts in climate adaptation policy and planning and related policy domains.
Governments, intergovernmental organizations, economic and financial actors should also integrate Earth system tipping points into risk assessments across scales.
Risk assessment
The chapter on risk assessment provides an assessment of the systemic risks Earth system tipping points pose to human societies and ecosystems across all global regions, introducing a framework for risk evaluation that addresses the fundamental inadequacies of traditional approaches.
Notably, the researchers argue that Earth system tipping points have huge impacts that demand further research and that all regions and billions of people face major impacts from earth system tipping points. They also argue that regional vulnerabilities highlight extreme inequalities for example in terms of certain regions’ preparedness for the risks they face.
Source : Global Tipping Points Report (Chapter 2.4 Earth system tipping point risk assessment)
Additional information and full report
The full report can be viewed here.
More information is also available here on the University of Exeter website.
*Silvia MONTAGNANI will be attending the COP30 in Brazil in November.
