Climate Policy: Is it time to downsize the COPs?
The Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have transformed into ‘global mega events’, attracting unparalleled levels of participation from non-state actors (NSA) – including NGOs, thinktanks, researchers, and representatives of business, or cities. COP28 in late 2023 in Dubai was attended by more than 80,000 participants, of which around one third were non-state actors making it comfortably the largest climate conference in history. As stakeholders gather for the latest COP that is due to get underway on the 10th November in Belém (Brazil), research argues that this increase in NSA participation is actually undermining the quality of their participation and limiting their opportunities to interact with the COP negotiators.
11/07/2025
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As UN processes, climate COPs are intergovernmental in nature: they are created by governments, for governments. Negotiations take place between state Parties to the UNFCCC. Nevertheless, the UNFCCC opens its doors to a variety of NSAs, who participate either as ‘observers’ or are included in Party delegations.
“Far from just observing the negotiations, NSAs actively shape government decision-making, raise awareness of specific topics, and share knowledge and best practices,’ outline Professors Hayley Walker, from IÉSEG, and Lisanne Groen (Open Universiteit, Heerlen Netherlands) in their study.
The UNFCCC recognizes the significant potential of these actors for accelerating climate action, given that governments’ measures alone will not be enough to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, and has developed a host of initiatives to mobilize and orchestrate their commitments and provide new avenues for participation.
Examples include the Race to Zero campaign and the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MPGCA), which has the mission to strengthen collaboration between actors (cities, regions, businesses, investors, and civil society including youth, Indigenous Peoples and local communities) to lower emissions and increase resilience against climate impacts. However, the development of NSA participation has faced criticism notably for a lack of representation from groups from developing countries, and the participation of certain groups that may undermine the COP process.
In their research, the experts explain that there has been a major increase in the overall level participation in COPs in recent years, and notably from NSAs.
“After the adoption of the Paris Agreement at COP21 (2015) with almost 30,000 in attendance, the ‘post-Paris normal’ was around 20,000 participants until COP25 in 2019. COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 then surpassed the Paris figures with slightly over 30,000 attendees. At COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh one year later numbers rose to about 36,000 attendees, and at COP28 in 2023 reached a record level of more than 80,000 participants. Numbers fell at COP29 in Baku in 2024 to about 40,000 participants but are still well above COP21 in Paris.”
Undermining the quality of participation and unfilled expectations
They argue that this trend has negatively impacted the quality of NSA participation in the era of mega COPS and their ability to meaningfully interact with COP parties who are responsible for negotiations. For example, it has become more difficult for them to provide meaningful inputs (for example through side events) or develop dialogue with the negotiating parties. Opportunities such as side event slots are finite in nature – there are only so many to around -and the same applies for the negotiators who only have so many hours in a day.
“The sheer mass of these events exerts a gravitational force, attracting new participants as ‘the place to be’. This growth further fuels the media and political energy around the event, creating a self-reinforcing dynamic of expansion and the crowding out of finite opportunities for NSA engagement, resulting in lower quality participation.,” the paper notes
“We have also witnessed a widening expectation gap among newcomers to the COPs, whose calls for a seat at the decision-making table will always lead to disappointment in an intergovernmental process”, adds Professor Walker.
Possible solutions? – (Re) consider the party overflow category of participation
In terms of developing meaningful participation for NSAs, the authors argue that the “obvious solution is to downsize the COPs, yet this is easier in theory than in practice”.
They propose that the most effective way to address ballooning participation at the COP is to cast a spotlight on ‘Party overflow’ participation category. “There is little public awareness or understanding of this now-redundant category of participation, which existed to allow governments to add delegates without their names appearing on the list of participants, but which has been publicly reported since the introduction of the secretariat’s new transparency measures in 2023. These participants are often NSAs who do not play an active role in the negotiations,(….). Applying pressure on governments to either limit or remove this category entirely therefore has potential to deliver significant results.”
Finally, to tackle the frustration that some NSAs may feel, Professor Walker argues it is time to bust the myth around the power of in-person participation. “Do we really all need to travel to the COP or can we achieve our objectives through virtual participation?” she asks.
More information is available in their study ‘Access and meaningful participation of non-state actors in the UNFCCC process: path-dependencies in the era of ‘mega-COPs’ (Climate Policy 2025).
You can also read more in this article by Hayley WALKER published by the Conversation France:
The problem with ‘mega-COPs’: can a 50,000-person conference still tackle climate change?
