Economic cycles: the eternal return?
05/16/2025
2 min
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Every first-year student knows that the economy goes through cycles and crises. Does the pace of these cycles change? This is the view of Éric Dor, economist, professor at IÉSEG and Director of Economic Studies:
Are we witnessing a disruption of economic cycles?
The recent succession of closely spaced crises might give that impression, but the length of cycles is actually tending to increase. In the United States, we are seeing a lengthening of the interval between two recessions. This is also the case in Europe, albeit with some differences. For example, the continent experienced a further recession after the financial crisis because of the austerity policies that over-indebted countries were forced to implement.
Generally speaking, there is less international decorrelation of cycles than differentiation of potential growth. In Europe, growth has been slower than in the United States for years, due to lower productivity gains and less investment in new technologies. This gap could widen with rising energy costs and de-industrialisation. In China, an ageing population is likely to slow growth.
Read the full article in the latest edition of Change Magazine (“Time is indefinable”):
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