{"id":2073,"date":"2019-06-05T17:19:00","date_gmt":"2019-06-05T15:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.ieseg.fr\/?p=2073"},"modified":"2024-03-12T14:54:13","modified_gmt":"2024-03-12T13:54:13","slug":"what-is-next-for-the-western-balkans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.ieseg.fr\/en\/resource-center\/what-is-next-for-the-western-balkans\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s next for the Western&nbsp;Balkans?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For the first time since 1999, the two most powerful leaders in the European Union, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, displayed a united leadership concerning the future of the Western Balkans. It is the first major attempt in many years to ease tense relations between Serbia and Kosovo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On April 29 in Berlin, the Franco-German duo <a href=\"http:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/factsheets\/en\/sheet\/168\/the-western-balkans\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">pledged their support to the region<\/a> through the reinforcement of the rule of law, security and migration assistance, socio-economic development, and peace and reconciliation efforts. Further talks will take place at the <a href=\"https:\/\/europeanwesternbalkans.com\/2019\/06\/03\/german-french-diplomats-today-pristina-preparations-paris-summit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Paris summit on July 1<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Western Balkans, racked by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-17632399\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">war and tragedies<\/a> throughout the 1990s, has recently seen a surge of significant political, social and economic progress. Yet the need for reforms and transformation is still crucial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is why heads of state and government from Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia, as well as the EU\u2019s foreign policy high representative Federica Mogherini, gathered with Merkel and Macron in Berlin. One of the central subjects at the extraordinary summit will be discussing the road ahead for Kosovo and Serbia and the possibility of their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/serbia-kosovo-agree-to-talks-following-berlin-summit\/a-48541196\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">normalising their relations<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Kosovo and Serbia at the crossroads<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This summit came at a time of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/section\/enlargement\/news\/macron-and-merkel-try-to-resurrect-serbia-kosovo-talks-at-berlin-summit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tensions between Kosovo and Serbia<\/a>. Relations between the two countries collapsed again last year after an initial attempt of a EU-led dialogue for normalisation. One of the main issues at stake has been a possible adhesion of the two countries to the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite an agreement by the two countries to not undermine each other\u2019s prospects to integrate the EU, Serbia has lead continuous campaign against Kosovo\u2019s international recognition, most recently against a bid by the country to <a href=\"https:\/\/balkaninsight.com\/2018\/11\/20\/kosovo-s-bid-to-join-interpol-fails-11-20-2018\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">join Interpol<\/a> in November 2018. In retaliation, <a href=\"https:\/\/onu.delegfrance.org\/Kosovo-Serbia-the-normalization-of-relations-depends-on-the-dialogue\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Kosovo imposed a 100% tax on goods coming from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>A demonstration of Franco-German diplomacy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The complex nature of European integration requires leadership and the ability to negotiate agreements, solve disputes, and bring people and countries together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chancellor Merkel talking about the summit stated that it was not meant to make decisions but as \u201can open discussion\u201d, while President Macron <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2019\/04\/30\/balkan-leader-summit-in-berlin-aims-to-break-kosovo-serbia-deadlock\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">stressed the importance<\/a> of \u201csecurity and stability in the region, and progress on reforms\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The meeting was led by Merkel and Macron with the aim of breaking the deadlock in the region. Taking the initiative showed true leadership, and it has been evident that in recent years that both Germany and France are actively engaged into shaping EU policy, and together are becoming a powerful force in global diplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among many examples, they <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-un-security-council-in-a-post-brexit-world-france-and-germany-take-the-lead-113078\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">jointly led the UN Security Council<\/a>, recently signed a new cooperation treaty in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elysee.fr\/emmanuel-macron\/2019\/01\/08\/signature-nouveau-traite-franco-allemand-aix-la-chapelle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Aachen<\/a> and displayed a shared diplomatic stance on the <a href=\"https:\/\/new-york-un.diplo.de\/un-en\/news-corner\/ger-fra-situation-ukraine\/2213496\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ukraine-Russian tensions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>A future in the EU?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Western Balkan countries believe that their future lies in the European Union \u2013 even if the Union is itself entangled in a number of issues such as immigration, security or <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-shadow-of-nationalism-in-the-new-populist-proposals-in-europe-117127\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">populist movements<\/a>. To the Balkan countries, it is literally a question of war and peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-eu-france-juncker-balkans\/western-balkans-need-eu-path-to-prevent-new-wars-juncker-idUSKBN1HO15C\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">stated on April 17<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>\u201cIf we don\u2019t succeed in making the Western Balkans new member states, we will again experience the same problems we saw in the 1990s.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>As Junker <a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/news\/strategy-western-balkans-2018-feb-06_en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">stated in February 2018<\/a>: \u201cThe Western Balkan countries now have a historic window of opportunity to firmly and unequivocally bind their future to the European Union\u201d and that their integration \u201cis an investment in the EU\u2019s security, economic growth and influence and in its ability to protect its citizens\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, an integration also means to meet the goals and agenda set by EU strategies, as he recalls:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>\u201cFor the countries to meet all membership conditions and strengthen their democracies, comprehensive and convincing reforms are still required in crucial areas, notably on the rule of law, competitiveness, and regional cooperation and reconciliation.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2>When peace is threatened by foreign interests<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The ongoing conflict-resolution effort in the region will also contribute to peace and security in Europe. For countries such as Russia, China and Turkey that are working to spread and assert their power, the Western Balkans occupy a strategic space, with a range of opportunities, stiff competition and potential clashes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia\u2019s involvement in the region was particularly pointed out. A May trial revealed the implication of Kremlin military intelligence agents in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/montenegrin-coup-verdict-a-wakeup-call-to-eu-on-russia-s-rising-role-in-balkan-instability\/29933787.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">coup attempt in Montenegro<\/a> that could endanger the Balkans stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Bosnia and Herzegovina, ethnic tensions remain the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2019\/may\/29\/bosnia-europe-econmy-ethnic-nationalist\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">main vulnerabilities<\/a>, a situation that could serve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/bosnia-election-complex-ethnic-problems-dodik\/29529200.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">foreign agendas<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The question of Kosovo\u2019s independence shows how foreign states have divergent visions: it is recognised by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldatlas.com\/articles\/which-countries-recognize-kosovo-as-a-country.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">more than 113 countries<\/a>, including the United States, Germany, France, the UK and Italy, while Russia, China and Serbia, among others, oppose such recognition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking back on the 1990s, the role of an EU\u2013United States alliance to bringing peace in the region was vital. According to observers, it is perhaps <a href=\"https:\/\/europeanwesternbalkans.com\/2019\/04\/15\/hahn-us-supportive-eu-western-balkans\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">as crucial today as ever<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Starting afresh: the road to Paris<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Western Balkans summit in Berlin ended with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/serbia-kosovo-agree-to-talks-following-berlin-summit\/a-48541196\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Kosovo and Serbia agreeing to work together<\/a>. Though the meeting itself was not meant to come up with substantial, concrete results, it sent important messages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, in midst of the debate about the idea for land swap between Kosovo and Serbia \u2013 an ethnically based proposition \u2013 Angela Merkel torpedoed the <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2019\/05\/21\/serbia-needs-kosovos-respect-not-its-land\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">partition plan<\/a>. The message conveyed to the summit was that in a free-market region, no ethnic border changes should happen. Multi-ethnic societies are a value to the entire region, as Gerald Knaus from the European Stability Initiative asserted, not a liability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Calling the Balkans summit \u201ca courageous step\u201d, Christian Schwarz-Schilling \u2013 a former German minister and EU High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/opinion-berlin-balkan-conference-a-surprising-breakthrough-in-the-cards\/a-48536697\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">declared<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>\u201cNow, the people of the Western Balkans are waiting for their chance to join the European Union as well.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite some changes in the EU parliament after the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2019\/may\/27\/five-things-we-have-learned-from-the-election-results-across-europe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2019 elections<\/a>, the pro-European forces will continue to be the majority. However, it is clear that the key word in the coming period is <em>negotiation<\/em>. Discussions among the political groups in the European Parliament will determine many aspects of the European vision, including the Union\u2019s enlargement question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if the people of the Western Balkans show a strong desire to join the EU, how and when the concrete integration would happen remains an open question. Which path will be chosen, how trust will be built and which actions will follow will much clearer after the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sudouest.fr\/2019\/04\/30\/sommet-des-balkans-pousses-par-macron-et-merkel-la-serbie-et-le-kosovo-prets-a-discuter-6030588-4803.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">July 1 meeting in Paris<\/a>. Should such a vision fail, the Western Balkans will probably remain just a geographical and historical term with a tragic history and identity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/whats-next-for-the-western-balkans-117344\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the first time since 1999, the two most powerful leaders in the European Union, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, displayed a united leadership concerning the future of the Western Balkans. It is the first major attempt in many years to ease tense relations between Serbia and Kosovo. On April 29 <a href=\"https:\/\/insights.ieseg.fr\/en\/resource-center\/what-is-next-for-the-western-balkans\/\" class=\"more-link\">&#8230;<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">  What\u2019s next for the Western&nbsp;Balkans?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":2080,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[488],"tags":[302,324,388],"article-type":[12],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.5.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>What\u2019s next for the Western\u00a0Balkans?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Western Balkans has recently seen a surge of significant political and economic progress. 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