In recent years, the European Union (EU) has launched ambitious pledges to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These include reaching climate neutrality by 2050 and achieving a 55% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. While the technical, economic, and political aspects of EU policy frameworks have been widely studied, a crucial question has remained unanswered: Do the people who will live with these policies\u2014citizens, experts, and policymakers\u2014actually believe they can be achieved?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A team of international researchers led by Lo\u00efc Berger<\/a> (CNRS researcher and professor at I\u00c9SEG) has been delving into this question via a survey of more than 2,600 citizens from 12 different EU member states and a panel of 76 policymakers and scientific experts. Their findings reveal how the three groups\u2019 expectations about the probability of the EU reaching the 55% target, compare and contrast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While all stakeholders expect substantial emissions reductions by 2030, they do not expect that the EU will reach the 55% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On average, citizens surveyed estimate there will be a 43% reduction in emissions. This is a significant improvement over current levels but still falls short of the official 55% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In comparison, experts and policymakers predict 46% and 50% reductions, respectively. This shows a shared view that substantial progress is likely, even if the target is unlikely to be fully met.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The study didn\u2019t just ask political and scientific stakeholders about their own beliefs, it also asked them to predict how citizens would answer. The results reveal a critical blind spot: Elites correctly assumed citizens would be more pessimistic than themselves, but they drastically underestimated the depth of that pessimism (Elites guessed citizens expected a 45% reduction, while in reality, citizens expected only 43% and were far more uncertain about their responses).<\/p>\n\n\n\n The survey results highlight that the public\u2019s expectations are remarkably consistent across the 12 countries surveyed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The researchers were also able to gauge how certain respondents were in terms of their beliefs. Unsurprisingly, the general public are substantially more unsure than the 2 groups of experts. This uncertainty is high across all 12 countries, except in France, where the population is more confident in their responses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOverall, our findings suggest that public skepticism about fully meeting EU climate goals is not confined to specific national contexts but reflects a broader, cross-border phenomenon. This uniformity is notable given that we know that there are significant national differences in terms of support for climate policies and even trust in the EU institutions,\u201d notes Lo\u00efc BERGER, the lead author of the study and Director of the I\u00c9SEG Center on Risk and Uncertainty<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n The study also shows that people across all backgrounds, regardless of age, income, or political views, share doubts about whether the EU will fully meet its climate goals. However, some groups feel more unsure than others. For example, younger people tend to be more uncertain about how much emissions will actually drop by 2030, while those with higher education levels are less uncertain and more consistent in their expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Public beliefs about climate policies aren\u2019t just opinions, they\u2019re the hidden engine that determines whether these policies succeed or stall. As Lo\u00efc Berger puts it: \u201cHow people perceive climate policies shapes everything; whether they\u2019ll support them, follow them, or demand they continue. If citizens don\u2019t believe a policy will work, their skepticism can slowly undermine its effectiveness and even its survival.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Public beliefs serve two crucial functions. First, they act as a reality check, revealing what people truly expect. For example, when citizens predict the EU will only cut emissions by 43% instead of the promised 55%, it\u2019s a red flag: people doubt the plan\u2019s credibility. This skepticism isn\u2019t just abstract, it reflects real concerns, like whether green policies will hurt jobs, raise costs, or simply fizzle out due to political inertia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Second, beliefs shape the future of climate action. When people doubt a policy\u2019s success, they\u2019re less likely to get behind it, whether that means voting for green initiatives, switching to electric cars, or accepting higher energy costs. Even the best-planned policies can fail if people don\u2019t support them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe\u2019ve seen this before: In France, the Yellow Vest protests started because people felt fuel taxes were unfair. Meanwhile, in other parts of Europe, political groups opposed to climate action have gained followers by highlighting the gap between big promises and real results,\u201d adds Berger<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n The stakes are high. If policymakers ignore public skepticism, they risk creating a vicious cycle: overpromising leads to underdelivering, which fuels more distrust. But if they listen and respond, by explaining challenges honestly, celebrating progress, and involving citizens in solutions, they can turn doubt into shared purpose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Berger et al\u2019s study drives home a critical point: Beliefs aren\u2019t just about what people think, they\u2019re about whether climate policies can last long enough to work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe EU\u2019s 2030 targets aren\u2019t just technical goals; they\u2019re a test of public trust. Passing that test means designing policies that don\u2019t just look good on paper but also feel credible, fair, and achievable to the people who will live with them every day,\u201d he concludes.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n Methodology<\/p>\r\n\t\t <\/p>\n To understand how different groups perceive the EU\u2019s climate commitments, researchers from the EU-funded Capable project<\/a> surveyed 2,620 citizens across 12 EU countries, including France, Germany, Italy, and Poland. They also gathered responses from 76 policymakers and scientific experts, individuals directly involved in shaping or studying climate policy.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Instead of asking participants whether they believed the EU would meet its 2030 target of a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the study took a more precise approach. Participants were presented with four possible outcomes (no progress, modest progress, substantial progress, or meeting the target) and asked to assign a percentage likelihood to each.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n This method allowed researchers to construct a probability distribution for each participant, revealing not just their central expectation but also the uncertainty surrounding their beliefs.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n The study also explored how policymakers and experts perceived public opinion, comparing their predictions about citizen expectations with the actual responses. This revealed critical gaps between elite assumptions and public sentiment, highlighting where misunderstandings could undermine policy credibility.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\n\n\n The research has been published in the journal: Environmental Research Letters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cBeliefs about EU 2030 climate commitments across public, expert, and policy audiences\u201d by Lo\u00efc Berger, Thibault Richard, Johannes Emmerling, Thomas Epper, Nahed Eddai, Uyanga Turmunkh, Mary Sanford, Silvia Pianta and Valentina Bosetti.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The full study is available here<\/a>: https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ae491<\/a><\/p>\n\n\nDo experts have a realistic view of citizens\u2019 beliefs?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Differences between countries and in terms of certainty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
What drives citizens\u2019 beliefs?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Policy implications- key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n